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Inflation in South Africa
South Africa experienced consistently high inflation rates from 2013 to 2022. The decade was marked by economic challenges, including currency volatility, wage pressures and energy shortages, which contributed to the inflationary pressures.
Consumer price inflation in South Africa averaged 5.2% in the ten years to 2022, below the Sub-Saharan Africa regional average of 9.4%. The 2022 average figure was 6.9%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
South Africa Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for South Africa from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Statistics South Africa.
South Africa Inflation Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 6.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
| Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 7.1 | 14.4 |
Inflation moderates in March
Inflation came in at 5.3% in March, down from February’s 5.6%. March’s print came in below market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose at a slower pace in March, as did transport prices. These developments more than offset a faster rise in prices for housing and utilities. Accordingly, the trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.5% in March (February: 5.7%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 4.9% in March, from February’s 5.0%. Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.79% in March over the previous month, moderating from February's 0.98% rise.
Our Consensus sees inflation averaging above the mid-point of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s 3.0–6.0% target band until Q4 2024; drought conditions and higher oil prices will drive food and transport price growth. That said, a stronger rand against the USD later this year and the delayed impact of past interest rate hikes will help keep inflation within the target range this year. Potential changes in the fiscal policy stance ahead of and after the 29 May general elections is a two-sided risk. Meanwhile, March’s mild downtick in inflation is unlikely to motivate the SARB to kickstart its loosening cycle when it makes its next monetary policy decision on 28–30 May.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects South African inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 26 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for South African inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our South African inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of South African inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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